The Appeal to Probability fallacy occurs when it is assumed that because something could happen, it will happen. This logical fallacy simplifies complex probabilities into certainties, overlooking other possibilities and uncertainties. It often leads to misleading conclusions and decisions.
The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals rely on immediate examples that come to mind while evaluating a situation, idea, or decision. This bias arises from our tendency to give undue weight to information that is readily retrievable from memory, often due to recent exposure or repeated emphasis, rather than considering broader data sets or statistical realities.
Loss aversion is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency for individuals to prefer avoiding losses rather than acquiring equivalent gains. This phenomenon implies that the pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. As such, people are typically more motivated to try to avoid losses than to try to achieve gains.
Pessimism bias is a cognitive bias that leads individuals to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes, often projecting a more dire picture of future events than is warranted. This bias causes people to focus on potential drawbacks or harmful future scenarios while discounting positive ones, resulting in a skewed perception that influences decision-making and emotional resilience.
The subadditivity effect is a cognitive bias where individuals tend to judge the probability of a whole as less than the sum of its parts. In essence, people often underestimate the total probability of an event when it is broken down into component parts. This effect is prominent within the realm of probabilistic reasoning, where human intuition struggles to accurately assess combined probabilities.