Moral luck

Moral luck occurs when external factors beyond an individual's control affect the moral judgement of their actions. If two people perform the same action with the same intent, but differing outcomes due to circumstances outside their control, moral luck leads to them being judged differently. The essence of this bias lies in the human tendency to draw meaning from actions based on their results, projecting these interpretations both retrospectively and prospectively.

• Consider two drivers, each engaging in the risky behavior of texting while driving. One driver causes a major accident with severe consequences, while the other driver arrives at their destination safely without incident. The first driver is likely to face severe moral judgment due to the outcome, despite both having the same negligent intent.
• In the workplace, an employee who takes a gamble on a business decision may be lauded as a visionary if it succeeds but condemned as reckless if it fails, even though the decision-making process was identical in both scenarios.

Critics argue that fully eliminating moral luck from moral judgments undermines accountability for results and may lead to moral permissiveness. They also point out that consequences are an inherent part of moral consideration in the real world. Furthermore, some philosophers suggest that outcomes matter significantly in developing ethical and legal frameworks.