Sunk cost fallacy

The sunk-cost fallacy is continuing a course of action because of time, money, or effort already spent, even though that investment cannot be recovered. The past feels like a reason to continue; economically, only the value and cost from this moment forward should decide.

Mechanism

How it works

Quitting makes a loss visible and can feel like admitting failure, while continuing lets us preserve a story that the earlier investment was justified. Personal responsibility intensifies the pull: the more we chose and built, the harder it is to assess the next dollar or hour as a fresh decision.

Examples

Where it shows up

  • A team funds another quarter of a failing product because cancelling would make the prior two years look wasted, even though the expected return is still negative.
  • You stay through a film you dislike because leaving after an hour would 'waste' the ticket, even though the hour is already gone either way.
  • An investor refuses to sell a losing stock until it returns to the original purchase price — a reference point with no bearing on its future return.
Consequences

What it can distort

  • Resources remain tied to projects, purchases, and relationships that would not receive a fresh yes today.
  • Organizations conceal bad news because stopping feels reputationally worse than spending more.
Countermeasures

How to work around it

  • Reframe every continuation decision as a fresh investment: 'knowing what we know now, would we start this today at this price?'
  • Separate deciders: have people without ties to the original decision make the continue/kill call.
  • Pre-register kill criteria when starting projects — thresholds decided before money is spent are immune to its gravity.
  • Account for sunk costs explicitly in memos as 'already gone regardless of choice' to strip their pull.
Caveats

Critiques and limits

Past effort can matter when it changes the future — for example, it created skills, trust, or an asset that will be useful. It is sunk only when it is unrecoverable regardless of the next choice.

Taxonomy

Fields of impact

Evidence

How solid is the research?

Robust — replicates reliably

Replicates in laboratory and field settings, with adults, organizations, and governments; magnitude varies with personal responsibility for the initial investment.

Research

Relevant papers

The psychology of sunk cost

Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985)

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 124-140

Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action

Staw, B. M. (1976)

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16(1), 27-44

Case studies

Real-world patterns.

Real-world examples showing how Sunk cost fallacy manifests in practice

Case study

When Customization Costs Lives: The EMR That Kept Growing

A real-world example of Sunk cost fallacy in action

Context

A regional hospital system embarked on a major electronic medical record (EMR) implementation to replace a patchwork of legacy systems. Leadership authorized extensive customizations to match long-standing local workflows rather than adopting the vendor's standard configuration.

Situation

After 18 months and $3.0M spent, the project was behind schedule and clinical staff reported rising usability problems. The vendor recommended reverting to their standard workflow templates (estimated one-time cost $300k and three months to stabilize), but the project steering committee instead approved further custom work to "finish what was started."

The bias in action

Decision-makers framed choices around how much had already been invested instead of comparing future costs and benefits, repeatedly approving change requests to justify prior spending. Project champions argued that abandoning custom features would waste two years of work, even though the customizations were causing training delays and higher error rates. The team ignored objective stop/go criteria (schedule slips, user-acceptance scores, and cost-per-month-to-complete) and treated sunk costs as a reason to continue. As a result, incremental investments were approved without a fresh ROI analysis.

Outcome

The implementation timeline slipped another 18 months while an additional $1.2M was spent on bespoke features. Clinicians faced prolonged training and workflow disruptions; inpatient scheduling errors and order-entry delays rose. The organization ultimately accepted the vendor's standard configuration after cumulative spending far exceeded initial projections, and morale among clinicians and IT staff eroded.

What's inside the full case study

Unlock the deeper breakdown with real-world impact, measurable effects, lessons learned, better-approach recommendations, and relevant fields.

Real-world impact
Affected groups, timeframe, and measurable outcomes.
Lessons learned
Practical takeaways and a better path forward.
Full case breakdownEmail access

Want the full analysis?

Request access to the complete case study, including measurable impact, lessons learned, and the recommended better approach.

We'll use your email to follow up about case-study access.

Further reading

Recommended books

Entry last reviewed 2026-07-16 · sources verified against the published literature — methodology

Sunk cost fallacy - The Bias Codex